Massive Ravens-49ers game on Christmas could help solve NFL MVP mystery

What a holiday treat. On Christmas night, the current holders of the top seeds in each conference – the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens – will meet at Levi’s Stadium in what could be a preview of Super Bowl 58.

Then there’s a rather scintillating subplot: Will the matchup of 11-3 teams provide the ultimate swing factor in the wild race for NFL Most Valuable Player honors?

There are some who argue that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the league’s highest-rated passer (119.0) and leader with 29 touchdown strikes, deserves the hardware. That would be even more remarkable when considering that last year Purdy started his would-be MVP trek as Mr. Irrelevant, the last man drafted.

Others might swear on Ravens star Lamar Jackson, who carries his offense like no other and has kept it rolling despite the key injury losses of J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews. His numbers are not as robust as they were when he won the award in 2019, but he’s still been on fire in the first year with a new coordinator, and there’s still a good chance that the multi-tasking quarterback will rush for 1,000 yards again.

Or maybe it’s time for a non-quarterback to win the award for the first time in a decade. That’s where 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey comes in. Not only has he gone wire-to-wire this season as the NFL’s rushing leader (1,292 yards), with his tight receiving game added to the mix he leads the league with 1,801 yards from scrimmage. And he’s tied for the NFL high with 20 TDs. Is Purdy anywhere near as effective as he’s been without McCaffrey?

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What gives? A huge performance on the big holiday stage might push one of these MVP candidates over the top. After all, in including the top-notched competition from the opposing defense – San Fran’s or Baltimore, either way – it will be interesting to see which of the marquee players can most inflict their will on the much-anticipated matchup.

Still, the award won’t be completely settled on Monday night.

Remember, two weeks ago Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had the MVP momentum flowing. Then Buffalo happened. It’s possible that Prescott will rise to the top of the projected MVP charts again in the final weeks. But we’ll know more on Sunday, when Dallas tries to prove something at Miami – where another non-quarterback MVP candidate, Tyreek Hill, seeks to get back on a record-breaking pace after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury.

There are so many scenarios in play for the final weeks of the season to determine everything from the seeding to the tiebreakers that keep some teams out of the playoff chairs. The mad scramble will extend to the finish.

This year, the same applies for the MVP race. Typically, it’s a two- or three-player race. This time, it’s like some sort of free-for-all. Which makes this the perfect time for some separation.

Increased heat

With back-to-back division losses, the Atlanta Falcons (6-8) went from controlling their own destiny and leading the NFC South to an extreme long shot to make the playoffs. And since the horrific loss at Carolina on Sunday – the Panthers entered the game at 1-12 yet won when Desmond Ridder’s red zone INT set up the Panthers' game-winning drive – the quarterback was benched again, and the coach was docked by the NFL for an injury report violation from earlier in the season.

It’s been a tough week for Arthur Smith and Co.

Smith declared after the bye in November that he didn’t want to play musical quarterbacks and was committed to Ridder, the second-year pro, for the rest of the season. Well, that idea has been blown up after Ridder’s ill-advised throw essentially cost Atlanta the game and a chance to play for the division crown. It was Ridder’s 16^th turnover this season (one shy of the NFL high) and by far his worst.

Enter Taylor Heinicke. Again. With the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) coming to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Smith might have completely lost his locker room if he didn’t switch QBs.

“Not that anyone’s career is over,” Smith said this week during a news conference at Falcons headquarters. “We have to do what’s best for the team now.”

It’s fair to wonder whether the Falcons’ plummet will put Smith’s job in jeopardy. This is his third season at the helm, with Terry Fontenot riding wingman as GM. Atlanta has squandered the improved play of its defense. Offensive playmakers such as Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson have hardly reached with their potential while paired with uneven quarterbacking.

Maybe Smith – fined $25,000 by the NFL, which also hit the team for $75,000 for mishandling Robinson’s illness before a Week 7 game at Tampa Bay – is due a bit of grace from team owner Arthur Blank because he started his tenure in salary cap jail. Yet if it’s standard NFL business, even if his job is safe for now, the clock is ticking. And a hard-knock lesson from this up-and-down campaign should move the Falcons enough to look to the upcoming draft for their franchise quarterback.

Chess match challenge

Maybe it’s fitting that if the Detroit Lions are to clinch their first NFC North title with a victory at Minnesota on Sunday, Jared Goff is going to have to go through Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. It was Flores, remember, who as New England Patriots defensive coordinator, thwarted then-Los Angeles Rams quarterback Goff and Sean McVay, in Super Bowl 53.

Goff, preparing to face the Vikings for the first time since Flores became coordinator, is impressed by the unique schemes he’ll face. Minnesota leads the NFL with a 47.7% blitz rate, yet also typically drops eight into coverage, including defensive linemen. Such twists go far in disguising intent.

“You see a lot of defenses try different parts of what they do,” Goff told reporters this week, “but for them to do all of it is impressive.”

Quick slant

From the strange-but-true statistical file: Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with 16 sacks this season, has registered 21 multi-sack games during his career. That’s tied for the fifth-most multi-sack games by a player in his first seven seasons. The great Reggie White tops that chart with 30-such games. Who’s tied with T.J. for fifth on the list? J.J. Watt. Of course. It must be in the genes.